My Black Friday Gift to You: The Biggest Housing Myths Debunked (with Real Data)

Let me be straight with you. There is nothing better than taking some scary housing headline your cousin read on Facebook and replacing it with real data that makes everyone breathe again. This week was full of those moments.

If you had family in town for Thanksgiving, you already know how the conversation goes. Someone is burning the rolls, someone else is yelling about the turkey, and then out of nowhere you hear, “My neighbor says the market is about to crash.”

So instead of letting the holiday chatter stress you out, I put together a simple fourth quarter housing market Q and A. This is the same breakdown I give clients face to face. Clean. Data based. No nonsense.

And yes, I included every source so the internet detectives in your family can click for themselves.

How is the market right now?

Nationally, things are moving in a steady, predictable direction.

NAR reports that existing home sales rose 1.2 percent in October, landing at a 4.10 million annual pace. Sales are up 1.7 percent from this time last year.

The median home price is now 415,200 dollars, which is a 2.1 percent climb year over year. Inventory remains low at 4.4 months of supply, which is part of why prices are not dropping even when buyers take a breath.

For TRI CITIES, TN, here is what it means in the real world.
Your market is steady. Demand is present. Inventory is still tight. Prices are holding because sellers have equity and buyers are still showing up when a home is priced correctly and does not need a rescue mission. If you want exact numbers for your neighborhood, just ask me and I will pull them.

Are home values really dropping? Is my equity in danger?

Here is the headline everyone saw. Zillow reported that 53 percent of homes across the country dipped in value this past year. Sounds scary if you stop there.

Now here is the truth.

We had six straight years of explosive appreciation. A small reset is not only normal, it is healthy. The average dip from peak value right now is 9.7 percent. Compare that to the 27 percent drop after the 2008 crash. Not even in the same universe.

And here is the part you will not hear in the headline.
Only 4.1 percent of homes are valued below their last purchase price. That means 95.9 percent of homeowners still have equity. The typical homeowner is up about 67 percent since purchase.

So if you see your Zestimate wiggle a little, relax. Your long term financial picture is not falling apart. Your equity is still very real.

I heard foreclosures are rising. Are we heading for another 2008?

Foreclosures did tick up. ATTOM shows 36,766 foreclosure filings in October which is a 3 percent increase from September and a 19 percent jump from last year. It is also the eighth month in a row of year over year increases.

Now for the part the fear based headlines leave out.

We are rising from a historically low baseline. Completed foreclosures in October were only 3,872. Many markets with large jumps are simply catching up after reporting delays.

Let’s talk about what is actually causing stress for homeowners.
Insurance is up.
Property taxes are up.
Everyday expenses are climbing faster than incomes.

That pressure is real. But it does not equal a market collapse. Homeowners today have stronger loans, tighter underwriting, and far more equity than the pre crash years. This is not 2008. Not even close.

If you are in TRI CITIES, TN and you are feeling the squeeze, reach out. When it hits home, the data does not make you sleep better. Getting a real plan does.

What is the deal with the 50 year mortgage?

The idea went viral because it sounds like the magic fix to affordability. Make the loan longer and the payment drops. Simple math.

But here is the reality. A 50 year mortgage is not legal under current federal rules. The Qualified Mortgage rule caps a mortgage at 30 years. Changing that requires lawmakers to rewrite the rulebook, and that is not happening today.

Even if it became legal, stretching a loan that long slows equity growth and massively increases interest paid over time. Right now it is a theory, not a product. Your lender cannot offer it even if they wanted to.

What about portable mortgages? Can I take my low rate with me?

Everyone with a 2 to 3 percent rate wishes this were possible. And honestly, I do not blame you. Portable mortgages would allow you to move and keep your rate. FHFA leadership has said they are studying the idea. That is where it ends.

Most existing mortgages are written to specifically block portability. Until that changes, lenders cannot transfer your rate to the next property no matter how good your credit is.

If this changes, I will be the first to tell you.

What should we expect next year?

Here is the latest forecast from NAR.
Existing home sales should rise 14 percent.
Home prices should rise 3 percent by the end of 2025 and 4 percent in 2026.
Mortgage rates are expected to ease from around 6.7 percent today to roughly 6 percent next year.

Mortgage applications are already up 31 percent year over year, which shows early buyer demand waking back up.

In plain English, the next year should bring more activity, steady price growth, and slightly friendlier rates. That is good news for both buyers and sellers in TRI CITIES, TN.

If you have questions about buying, selling, or planning ahead, reach out. If something you are worried about did not make it into this blog, tell me. I will break it down for you the same way. Straight, simple, and backed by real data.